POLITICAL TAFFY PULL

by Ken Grossberger, PhD

Have you wondered where the political middle went? In a highly polarized age, the right-wing pulls to the far right and the left-wing pulls to the far left. That leaves a larger middle where the moderate Republicans and moderate Democrats find themselves falling into the center with the independents.

Axios reports that independent voters are about 49% of the total and the Republican and Democrats are about 25% each. Forbes states that about 43% off voters identify themselves as independents and Democrats and Republicans are tied about 27% each. As there is no national database of voters, these data come from public opinion surveys, thus there is a margin of error in the results. But there seems to be general agreement that the independents are the biggest voting bloc. Pew research reports that voters in general split about evenly between the two parties, irrespective of party registration. That doesn’t mean that independents aren’t ideologically neutral. Many lean to one side of the other, but they remain unenrolled in any major party (we register to vote but we enroll in a party). Does that mean the political center controls? It usually does.

The media reports the “race” between the top candidates as a means of getting attention, and audience share. They report the national polling results and lean in on who is ahead and by how much. But the race for president is decided by the electoral college, and the only states that are undecided are the swing states: Georgia, Virginia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Arizona (and maybe Minnesota). If you believed the polls in July, Trip would win most these states. If you believed the polls a few weeks ago, Harris was pulling ahead. If you believe the polls today, it’s a dead heat.  And it’s not even September yet, with debates, wars, economic downturns, and perhaps a pandemic or two to go.  Still, the middle will determine the race.

But which way will independents go? They have been leaning towards Trump, but he has been trying very hard to put his foot in his mouth, only to be outdone by the never ending Harris word salad and her hide-and-go-seek strategy with the press. And Bobby Kennedy Jr. is now out of the race, so with so many variables, who knows?