TRUMP’S VEEP (AND REPLACEMENT?)

by Ken Grossberger, PhD

The latest polls suggest a probable Trump victory in November based on his edge in the swing states. Assuming this holds, his Vice-Presidential pick looms large as a successor if Trump gets convicted of any of the criminal charges against him in the multiple jurisdictions in which he has been formally charged. So who will it be?

The short list, as reported, includes Sen. Tim Scott, Gov. Ron DeSantis, business guy Vivek Ramaswamy, Rep. Byron Donalds. Gov. Kristi Noem and now former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard. Others have been mentioned (including former Gov. Nikki Haley). All this is speculative as Trump dangles a lot of bait in many directions. If Trump suffers a criminal conviction or goes bankrupt (or both), there is a scenario where the Republican National Committee (RNC) would have to replace him, and if he has already chosen a VEEP (before or after the Republican convention in August), then the RNC (led by his hand-picked chair and his daughter-in-law) might well select his pick as the successor presidential candidate. If recent polls are any indication, that successor might fare well against President Biden (polls during the primary showed Haley doing better against Biden than Trump did).

If Trump survives the barrage of lawsuits against him then this is a moot point and then it’s on to November. But if he takes a bad hit and is mortally (politically) wounded, then his number 2 becomes the Republicans’ number 1, and we are in a brand new ballgame. But if the potential replacement is likely to have better numbers against Biden, then exactly what is the political rationale behind the Democrat’s massive push to remove Trump from the political landscape?

Most of the Democrats’ campaign strategy revolves around bashing Trump, so if he’s not there, what do they do?

NIKKI HALEY: THE MUSIC HAS STOPPED

Ken Grossberger, PhD

It’s difficult to understand what Nikki is doing. She has virtually no path to the nomination, and continuing in the race increases her reputation risk. It seems she is intellectually stuck on an idea that does not correlate with reality. She needs to suspend her race while she can still clean up the damage.

Is there a future for the former South Carolina Governor and UN Ambassador? She’s smart, she’s tough and she can raise money, but her loss of perspective is troublesome as we assess her prospects in the post-election cycle. There is a sense of arguing too much as she repeats that she is going to continue her race because “Republican voters deserve a choice”, one they quite obviously have already made. Will she continue past Michigan primary (tomorrow) and head into Super Tuesday with a string of losses to show for her efforts? Will she continue past Super Tuesday when Trump will have officially locked up the nomination?

She is seduced by her own rhetoric, the force of which is supported by the constant repetition. It is difficult to know, at this point, what it will take to convince her to suspend her campaign. Polls don’t seem to matter, neither do losses. And this for a woman who has won every political race she has run in, and now an increasingly long string of losses. The logic of hanging in waiting for a Trump criminal conviction borders on the foolhardy as Trump has developed a Teflon political shield and will highly likely survive the White House coordinated legal tsunami.

So the music has stopped, the chairs are full of other humans and Nikki is still circling, waiting for some quixotic chance to get back in the game.

VIVEK’S PLOY

Ken Grossberger, PhD

Vivek Ramaswamy is running for the Republican nomination for President. Or is he? He started off as the new kid on the block: young, bright, rich. But over time he devolved into an old school attack-and-trash pol and even resorted to scribbled messaging at a debate calling Nikki Haley corrupt. Looks like he couldn’t resist.

But what is he really after? He has refrained from direct attacks on Donald Trump, and his pitch is that he represents the new generation of leadership. He reserves his caustic comments for Nikki and Ron DeSantis hard, so he has a fierce side, but he engages in rhetorical pattycake with the ex-President. If he really intends to be the Trump alternative, why does he only target the other candidates? He even said he would pardon Trump if he gets elected president, and Trump has said nice things about him.

Is Vivek just a MAGA version of Pete Buttigieg? It seems that he’s a stalking horse in the primaries, splitting the vote of the other candidates, and making it harder for a realistic challenge by the others (most notably Haley and DeSantis). This looks like a denial strategy.

So maybe Vivek is purchasing a cabinet position. We can be sure he isn’t serious about winning the Republican primary, but he does get attention.