Ken Grossberger, PhD

This month has been a disaster for Biden, but since Trump just can’t gracefully accept a gift, he has to continue to make self-immolating comments. How do we gauge the political effects of two candidates in a race to the bottom?

There are likely to be negative coattails in a super close war for control of the House, with either side winning by less than a handful of votes. The Republican pickup of perhaps 5 seats due to population shifts maybe offset by the unusual number of Republican retirements, and if the Dems pick up seats in swing districts due to social issues (e.g. abortion) they may take control of the House but by a margin so small they will need Genghis Khan and Atilla the Hun as whips to keep the troops in line. 

The situation is different in the US Senate where the Democrats are defending in 33 states (including 3 independents) and the Republicans in only 10. The Democrats are vulnerable in West Virginia, Montana, Ohio, Arizona and perhaps Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Maryland (with former Governor Larry Hogan now running). But still, coattails are a factor, witness the poor record of Trump-endorsed candidates in the 2022 cycle. The map may favor the Republicans, but the irascible and unpredictable former president has a hard time taking yes for an answer and can’t resist sticking in his nose where it may not belong and may do no good.

Polling shows the country continues to split down the middle politically. In recent election cycles winners win close and any advantage gained is usually lost soon hereafter. The country just doesn’t trust this generation of politicians very much.